Is China on Track to Comply with Its 2020 Copenhagen Carbon Intensity Commitment?∗

In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to slash its carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions/GDP) by 40% to 45% from the 2005 level by 2020. We assess whether China can achieve the target under the business-as-usual scenario by forecasting its emissions from energy consumption. Our preferred model shows that China’s carbon intensity is projected to decline by only 33%. The results imply that China needs additional mitigation effort to comply with the Copenhagen commitment. In addition, China’s baseline emissions are projected to increase by 56% in the next decade (2011-2020). The emission growth is more than triple the emission reductions that the European Union and the United States have committed to in the same period.